Statistical Inference as Severe Testing Mayo Paperback 9781107664647

Description: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars Unlock today's statistical controversies and irreproducible results by viewing statistics as probing and controlling errors. Deborah G. Mayo (Author) 9781107664647, Cambridge University Press Paperback, published 20 September 2018 500 pages 22.8 x 15.1 x 2.3 cm, 0.81 kg 'I think that it is a very valuable addition to the literature on foundations of statistics …' Christian Hennig, Statistical Modeling, Casual Interference and Social Science Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification. Preface Excursion 1. How to Tell What's True about Statistical Inference: Tour I. Beyond probabilism and performance Tour II. Error probing tools vs. logics of evidence Excursion 2. Taboos of Induction and Falsification: Tour I. Induction and confirmation Tour II. Falsification, pseudoscience, induction Excursion 3. Statistical Tests and Scientific Inference: Tour I. Ingenious and severe tests Tour II. It's the methods, stupid Tour III. Capability and severity: deeper concepts Excursion 4. Objectivity and Auditing: Tour I. The myth of 'the myth of objectivity' Tour II. Rejection fallacies: whose exaggerating what? Tour III. Auditing: biasing selection effects and randomization Tour IV. More auditing: objectivity and model checking Excursion 5. Power and Severity: Tour I. Power: pre-data and post-data Tour II. How not to corrupt power Tour III. Deconstructing the N-P vs. Fisher debates Excursion 6. (Probabilist) Foundations Lost, (Probative) Foundations Found: Tour I. What ever happened to Bayesian foundations? Tour II. Pragmatic and error statistical Bayesians Souvenir (Z) farewell References Index. Subject Areas: Philosophy of science [PDA], Probability & statistics [PBT]

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